China Trade Surplus Tops $1 Trillion as Exports Jump 35%

China’s trade surplus passed $1 trillion for the first ten months of 2026 after October exports rose 35.2% from a year earlier, customs data released on Tuesday, November 10, showed. Imports grew even faster, at 41.6%.

That takes the China trade surplus for January to October to about $1.04 trillion. It is the second year in a row that China has crossed the $1 trillion mark, following a record surplus of $1.2 trillion in 2025.

The monthly figure was weaker. October’s surplus narrowed to $105.3 billion from $133.5 billion in September, well short of a market estimate of about $125.8 billion.

China trade surplus narrows as imports surge

Imports were the surprise in the October release. Growth of 41.6% beat the market expectation of about 34% by a wide margin.

Exports rose 35.2%, ahead of a forecast of 33.5% but slightly slower than the 36.3% recorded in September. On a monthly basis, exports fell 7.8% and imports slipped 2.2%.

In yuan terms, exports rose 28.7% and imports 34.7% in October. Total trade for the first ten months reached CNY 44.81 trillion (about $6.6 trillion), up 20% from a year earlier.

Part of the import rebound came from a recovery in crude oil shipments from the Persian Gulf, the Associated Press reported. Technology purchases also climbed. Imports of components for automatic data processing equipment rose 135.7% in the first ten months, and integrated circuit imports rose 65.1%.

Chips and cars drive the export boom

Semiconductors led the export surge. Integrated circuit exports reached $39.6 billion in October, up 137.1% from a year earlier. Automobile exports rose 37.6% to $19.7 billion, and mobile phone exports gained 13.2% to $17.6 billion.

Chips and computer components account for about 40% of this year’s increase in exports, according to an analysis of the customs figures by BigGo Finance. The trend ties China’s trade performance closely to global spending on artificial intelligence hardware.

By destination, exports to the United States rose 32.9% in October, from a low base after last year’s tariff increases. Shipments to the European Union rose more than 24%. For the first ten months, exports to ASEAN grew 30.5%, against 17.2% for the EU and 12.1% for the US.

China’s surplus with the US for January to October stood at about $266.5 billion. Its surplus with the EU topped $310 billion over the same period.

Why it matters for Asian business

Strong exports have offset sluggish demand at home. Consumer prices rose just 0.7% in October, official data showed on November 9, while factory-gate prices climbed 5.7%, the fastest pace in more than four years.

The economy is forecast to meet the official 2026 growth target of 4.5% to 5%, slightly below last year’s 5% expansion.

For Southeast Asia, the 30.5% rise in Chinese exports to ASEAN means shipments to the region are growing faster than those to either the EU or the US this year. Readers tracking China’s car exporters can see our list of the top EV companies in China.

Hao Zhou, chief economist at Guotai Junan International, said the surplus “highlights the resilience and competitiveness of China’s export sector.”

Others are less upbeat. Alicia García-Herrero, Asia Pacific chief economist at Natixis, attributes the surplus to overcapacity, excess domestic savings and weak domestic demand, and describes the situation as unsustainable.

What happens next

Trade policy is the next test. A two-month extension of the US-China trade truce runs to January, giving exporters some breathing room. Trade is expected to be a top issue when US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping meet next week on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen.

Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Golden Credit Rating, expects export growth of about 26% in November and import growth of around 30% through the end of the year.

Dave Chia of Moody’s Analytics expects exports to stay strong for the rest of 2026, led by electronics and autos. He warned, however, that a slowdown or correction in the AI boom would sharply reduce China’s exports through lower chip and electronics prices and smaller shipment volumes. EU trade curbs are another growing risk.

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Beijing has said it does not seek to expand its surplus and wants more balanced global trade. With the 2025 record of $1.2 trillion within reach, the full-year China trade surplus will keep that claim under scrutiny. The Associated Press has more on the October figures.